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Markets
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Sep. 2, 2026
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<span class="dot">·</span>
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7 min read
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<h1>
Bitcoin: New Bull Run or Very Expensive Trap?
</h1>
<div class="nwa-deck">
Facts over emotions.
</div>
<div class="nwa-redmark"></div>
<div class="nwa-stat-icon">
<div class="nwa-bitcoin-icon">
₿
</div>
</div>
<div class="nwa-stat">
<strong>
$76,400
</strong>
<span>
BTC price<br>
Sep. 2, 2026<br>
time of writing
</span>
</div>
<div class="nwa-stat">
<strong>
+31%
</strong>
<span>
Above June 30<br>
low of $58,524
</span>
</div>
<div class="nwa-stat">
<strong>
$81,000+
</strong>
<span>
Aug. 28<br>
intraday high
</span>
</div>
<div class="nwa-stat">
<strong>
$58,524
</strong>
<span>
June 30<br>
closing low
</span>
</div>
<!-- OPENING -->
<section class="nwa-opening">
<p class="short">
Look who’s back. Back again.
</p>
<p>
If I had to dedicate that Eminem song to someone,
it would be Bitcoin.
</p>
<p>
BTC is back doing its favorite thing:
making bulls feel like geniuses and bears wish
they had held their shorts one week longer.
</p>
<p>
Who’s swimming naked now?
Apparently, the liquidated shorts.
</p>
<div class="nwa-price-note">
<p>
BTC was trading around <strong>$76,400</strong> on September 2,
roughly 31% above its June 30 closing low of
<strong>$58,524</strong>. On August 28, Bitcoin briefly pushed
above <strong>$81,000</strong> before reversing and finishing
back below <strong>$78,000</strong>.
</p>
</div>
<p>
Yes, we can call it
<span class="good-friday">BTC Good Friday.</span>
</p>
<p>
That same Friday also broke a nine-session streak of
inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
</p>
<p>
So what now?
<strong>Bull run or trap?</strong>
</p>
<p>
Let’s remove emotions and expectations and replace them
with facts and numbers.
</p>
</section>
<!-- =================================================
TRAP OPTION
================================================== -->
<section class="nwa-section">
<div class="nwa-section-head">
<h2>
The Trap Option
</h2>
<div class="accent"></div>
<p>
Bitcoin has rallied. The question is whether the June low
marked a durable bottom.
</p>
</div>
<div class="nwa-evidence-grid">
<article class="nwa-evidence wide">
<div class="nwa-evidence-num">
1
</div>
<h3>
The $81K problem
</h3>
<p>
Historically, Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average has often
acted like long-term support, while the 50-week moving
average has behaved more like resistance after major
bear markets.
</p>
<p>
Galaxy calculated the 50-week average near
<strong>$81,796</strong>, with Bitcoin needing a weekly
close above roughly <strong>$81,110</strong> to reclaim it.
The week finished closer to <strong>$77,600</strong>.
</p>
<p class="punch">
Bitcoin knocked on the door. Nobody answered.
</p>
</article>
<article class="nwa-evidence">
<div class="nwa-evidence-num">
2
</div>
<h3>
Part of the rally was forced buying
</h3>
<p>
According to Bloomberg, citing Coinglass, more than
<strong>$1 billion of Bitcoin shorts</strong> were liquidated
in roughly one hour during the surge.
</p>
<p>
In simpler English: some of the buying came from bears
being forced to buy Bitcoin back.
</p>
<p class="punch">
You can liquidate them only once.
</p>
</article>
<article class="nwa-evidence">
<div class="nwa-evidence-num">
3
</div>
<h3>
Treasury buybacks are not QE
</h3>
<p>
The Treasury increased the maximum size of certain
long-dated bond buybacks from <strong>$2 billion</strong>
to at least <strong>$4 billion per operation</strong>.
</p>
<p>
QE happens when the Federal Reserve creates new reserves
and buys bonds. Treasury buybacks are closer to the
government reorganizing its own debt.
</p>
<p class="punch">
Calling every buyback “money printing” skips the plumbing.
</p>
</article>
<article class="nwa-evidence">
<div class="nwa-evidence-num">
4
</div>
<h3>
There is traffic upstairs
</h3>
<p>
Bitcoin’s <strong>MVRV</strong>
<em>(Market Value to Realized Value — comparing Bitcoin’s
market value with roughly what investors paid)</em>
sits around <strong>1.5</strong>.
</p>
<p>
That is not euphoric. But a lot of Bitcoin changed hands
between roughly <strong>$82,000 and $117,000</strong>.
Investors who have been underwater may sell when price
returns toward their entry points.
</p>
<p class="punch">
Bitcoin’s road higher is not empty. There is traffic upstairs.
</p>
</article>
<article class="nwa-evidence">
<div class="nwa-evidence-num">
5
</div>
<h3>
Macro is not helping
</h3>
<p>
The Fed rate remains <strong>3.50%–3.75%</strong>.
July PCE inflation was <strong>3.7%</strong>, with core
PCE at <strong>3.3%</strong>, while the 10-year Treasury
yield moved toward <strong>4.8%</strong>.
</p>
<p>
Bitcoin generally prefers abundant liquidity and easier
financial conditions.
</p>
<p class="punch">
Liquidity is flirting with Bitcoin. It is not proposing marriage.
</p>
</article>
</div>
</section>
<!-- =================================================
BULL OPTION
================================================== -->
<section class="nwa-section nwa-bull">
<div class="nwa-section-head">
<h2>
The Bull Option
</h2>
<div class="accent"></div>
<p>
Now let’s give the bulls something to celebrate.
Hurray.
</p>
</div>
<div class="nwa-evidence-grid">
<article class="nwa-evidence">
<div class="nwa-evidence-num">
1
</div>
<h3>
ETF demand is real
</h3>
<p>
From August 17 through August 27, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs
attracted roughly <strong>$3.04 billion</strong> across
nine consecutive sessions.
</p>
<p>
The streak then broke, but institutional demand did not
disappear.
</p>
<p class="punch">
Institutional money is back. It simply is not moving in
a straight line.
</p>
</article>
<article class="nwa-evidence">
<div class="nwa-evidence-num">
2
</div>
<h3>
Saylor is back
</h3>
<p>
Strategy bought <strong>4,603 BTC</strong> for about
<strong>$369.7 million</strong> between August 24 and
August 30, at an average price of <strong>$80,318</strong>.
</p>
<p>
That brought its holdings to
<strong>845,050 BTC</strong>.
</p>
<p class="punch">
So no, Michael Saylor has not become a Bitcoin atheist yet.
</p>
</article>
</div>
</section>
<!-- =================================================
HISTORY
================================================== -->
<section class="nwa-history">
<h2>
History Is a Witness, Not a Judge
</h2>
<p>
Previous major Bitcoin bear markets produced drawdowns of
roughly <strong>84%, 84% and 77%</strong>.
</p>
<p>
This cycle’s deepest closing drawdown has been closer to
<strong>53%</strong>.
</p>
<p>
Suspiciously shallow? Maybe.
</p>
<p>
Or maybe Bitcoin itself has changed. The asset is larger.
Institutional ownership is deeper. Spot ETFs exist.
Corporate treasury ownership matters.
</p>
<p>
Assuming Bitcoin must fall 80% simply because previous cycles
did is not analysis.
</p>
<div class="astrology">
Copy-pasting history is astrology with spreadsheets.
</div>
</section>
<!-- =================================================
VERDICT
================================================== -->
<section class="nwa-verdict">
<div class="nwa-verdict-label">
Verdict
</div>
<h2>
Bull run or expensive trap?
</h2>
<div class="nwa-cases">
<div class="nwa-case bull">
<strong>
Bull case
</strong>
<p>
The June low may have mattered. ETF demand has returned.
Valuations do not look euphoric. Strategy is buying again,
and institutional participation is stronger than in
previous cycles.
</p>
</div>
<div class="nwa-case bear">
<strong>
Bear case
</strong>
<p>
Bitcoin failed its first major resistance test. Significant
potential supply remains above the market. Part of the rally
came from forced short covering, while macro conditions
remain restrictive.
</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="nwa-final">
<p>
The evidence refuses to give us a clean answer.
</p>
<strong>
Bitcoin may have found its bottom.
But it has not yet earned its bull market.
</strong>
<p style="margin-top:16px;">
Bull-market confirmation is not established.
</p>
</div>
</section>
<!-- =================================================
READER QUESTION
================================================== -->
<section class="nwa-question">
<div class="eyebrow">
Your Turn
</div>
<h3>
Bull run or trap?
</h3>
<p>
What evidence are you watching?
Drop us a message. Each week, we’ll pin one of the
most interesting answers.
</p>
</section>
<!-- =================================================
SOURCES
================================================== -->
<section class="nwa-sources">
<div class="nwa-source-icon">
✓
</div>
<div>
<h3>
Sources & Method
</h3>
<p>
Price action: market data ·
ETF flows: Farside Investors (cumulative) and SoSoValue
(daily) ·
Liquidations: Bloomberg / Coinglass ·
Technical levels: Galaxy ·
Strategy purchases: company filings ·
MVRV and on-chain cost basis: Glassnode ·
Treasury buybacks: U.S. Treasury ·
Inflation: Bureau of Economic Analysis ·
Federal Reserve policy: Federal Reserve.
</p>
</div>
</section>
<div class="nwa-disclaimer">
Nagham Writes is editorial commentary written for education
and to help readers think more clearly. It is not investment
advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or
hold any asset. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile and can
produce substantial losses.
</div>
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